Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Has the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine been provoked?

The main “expert” in Ukrainian affairs is, of course the U.S. President Joe Biden who called the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine an “unprovoked attack” last year; please see the official website of the White House.

However, I am going to offer my opinion about this subject in the present article.

I believe that the first phase of the Ukrainian crisis, which has led to this Military Operation, was a protest movement - the so-called Euromaidan - which started in 2013.

In the past ten years the question about causes of these protests has been widely debated but no one of Euromaidan supporters could give one single believable cause for it; please see the article What have Ukrainians been fighting for since 2013?.

However, at some point during Euromaidan, protesters began to burn and kill although such their actions absolutely could not be called a self-defense; please see the article Was there a threat for ethnic Russians in February 2014 in Ukraine (Crimean question)?.

I believe that the facts, which are described in the above-mentioned article, were sufficient grounds for the Russian Government’s concerns about future of ethnic Russians, who are the majority in the Crimea, and for acceptance of the Crimea into the Russian Federation in March 2014.

One may say that Russia did not have to have concerns about ethnic Russians in the Crimea who were Ukrainian citizens at that time.

However, in the nineties, all of a sudden, the U.S. became deeply concerned about Yugoslav Kosovo which is situated 4 828 miles away from the U.S. and which is not related to the U.S. at all, either ethnically, or historically, etc.
But nevertheless, Americans decided to separate Kosovo from Yugoslavia because of their concerns about ethnic Albanians there.

Distance between the Crimea and the Taman Peninsula is - along the Crimean Bridge - 11 miles.
The majority of Crimean population are ethnic Russians and the Crimea was earlier a part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic.

So, the Russian government decided to accept the Crimea into the Russian Federation 
in March 2014; in my opinion, to a great extent due to the fact that protesters in Ukraine had begun to burn and kill during Euromaidan.


However, after acceptance of the Crimea into the Russian Federation, Ukrainian authorities began to threat with military measures for “re-integration of the Crimea” into Ukraine -
please see the official website of the Ukrainian President.
And these threats were accompanied by large-scale deliveries of Western military equipment to Ukraine.

Therefore, if we consider the preceding events as a “chain” - please see the flow chart below - we can, in my opinion, conclude that the Russian Military Operation in Ukraine has been provoked by Ukrainians. 













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